CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-23T17:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16976/-1
CME Note: Associated with eruption from AR 2824 (N21E04) at 2021-05-23T17:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304. The eruption's EUV signature shows material deflected westward. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T12:25Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 54.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: -31719.73 hour(s)
Difference: 16.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy